Bitcoin is trading at 22% a year — calmer than this on just 9 days out of nine. SOL has never been this still
How compressed is volatility right now?
Below today’s levels the record thins out fast. Bitcoin has been there for 9 days in nine years, Ethereum for 62, Solana never. And this isn’t just the market growing up. Restrict the history to the last two years and the percentiles barely move — 0.5 for BTC, 1.9 for ETH, 0.1 for SOL.
The table reports: coin btc, 30d vol 22.4%, percentile 0.3, median 55.4%, all-time low 16.8%; coin eth, 30d vol 32.4%, percentile 1.9, median 74.5%, all-time low 15.0%; coin sol, 30d vol 31.3%, percentile 0.0, median 92.1%, all-time low 31.3% · yesterday.
Bitcoin’s 30-day realized volatility from 2017 to August 13, 2026. Today it is trading at 22.4% annualized against a historical median of 55.4%. Below the current level the record holds 9 days out of nine years.
Ethereum’s 30-day realized volatility from 2017 to August 13, 2026. Today it is trading at 32.4% annualized against a historical median of 74.5%. Below the current level the record holds 62 days.
Solana’s 30-day realized volatility from 2020 to August 13, 2026. Today it is trading at 31.3% annualized against a historical median of 92.1% — the all-time low of its six years, set yesterday. Below the current level there isn’t a single day on record.
The candles say the same thing on both scales. Measured day for day, August is the second-tightest month open on record for BTC and ETH, and the tightest ever for SOL — which had already set the narrowest monthly candle of its life in July.
To keep the incomplete periods honest the comparison is done day for day — the first 13 days of August against the first 13 of every month on record, the first 4 days of this week against the first 4 of every week. On the weekly candle BTC is deeply compressed but shy of a record, ETH is right at the edge, and SOL is first outright again — and its record for a completed week was set in April 2026. On this timeframe the entire squeeze is a this-year story.
The table reports: coin btc, month open 2nd of 107, week open 21st of 467, july candle 15.8% — 12th; coin eth, month open 2nd of 107, week open 7th of 467, july candle 27.6% — 27th; coin sol, month open 1st of 71, week open 1st of 311, july candle 16.2% — record.
Solana’s 71 monthly candles by range. July 2026, at 16.2%, is its all-time record for compression; August in progress is narrower still, day for day. The historical median is 60.6%.
Solana’s 311 weeks by range. The 5 weeks of the current run all sit below the 10th percentile, with a sixth under way — the longest compressed run in its history. The historical median is 22.7%.
How long do compressed runs last, and which way do they break?
We flag a candle as compressed when its range lands in the coin’s lowest decile, below the 10th percentile of its own history (weekly: 5.9% BTC · 8.3% ETH · 11.5% SOL). Taken across every run, BTC breaks higher three times out of four, ETH is a coin flip, SOL is 10↑/8↓. But when a run persists past two weeks the picture flips. Across the 17 closed persistent runs the one-month outcome is negative 11 times, median −11.8%, with violent tails in both directions (−45% to +37%). The full list:
btc · 7 closed runs · at +4 weeks: 3↑ 4↓, median −5.7% — run 22 Oct – 5 Nov 2018, length 3, break −12.2%, +4 wks −45.0%, +8 wks −38.2%; run 29 Jun – 13 Jul 2020, length 3, break +7.8%, +4 wks +29.3%, +8 wks +12.2%; run 19 Dec 22 – 2 Jan 23, length 3, break +21.9%, +4 wks +33.9%, +8 wks +31.0%; run 17 Jul – 7 Aug 2023, length 4, break −10.6%, +4 wks −11.8%, +8 wks −4.7%; run 2 – 9 Oct 2023, length 2, break +10.5%, +4 wks +36.5%, +8 wks +61.3%; run 25 Aug – 15 Sep 2025, length 4, break −2.7%, +4 wks −5.7%, +8 wks −18.2%; run 22 – 29 Dec 2025, length 2, break −0.6%, +4 wks −15.9%, +8 wks −28.1%; run 27 Jul – today · in progress, length 2, break —, +4 wks —, +8 wks —. eth · 7 closed runs · at +4 weeks: 3↑ 4↓, median −1.7% — run 4 – 11 Nov 2019, length 2, break −23.9%, +4 wks −22.5%, +8 wks −20.3%; run 19 – 26 Dec 2022, length 2, break +7.5%, +4 wks +37.0%, +8 wks +36.7%; run 26 Jun – 3 Jul 2023, length 2, break +3.2%, +4 wks −1.7%, +8 wks −12.2%; run 17 Jul – 7 Aug 2023, length 4, break −8.4%, +4 wks −12.1%, +8 wks −11.3%; run 4 – 18 Sep 2023, length 3, break +9.7%, +4 wks +5.3%, +8 wks +27.3%; run 9 – 16 Oct 2023, length 2, break +7.9%, +4 wks +20.9%, +8 wks +32.0%; run 27 May – 3 Jun 2024, length 2, break −2.2%, +4 wks −20.9%, +8 wks −27.5%. sol · 3 closed runs · at +4 weeks: 0↑ 3↓, median −21.2% — run 1 – 15 May 2023, length 3, break +6.1%, +4 wks −21.2%, +8 wks +39.8%; run 22 Dec 25 – 12 Jan 26, length 4, break −13.8%, +4 wks −37.5%, +8 wks −33.1%; run 6 – 27 Apr 2026, length 4, break +15.0%, +4 wks −20.7%, +8 wks −2.8%; run 6 Jul – today · in progress, length 5, break —, +4 wks —, +8 wks —.
The expansion is certain, the direction isn’t. Eleven episodes out of eleven saw volatility explode within 90 days, from 18–32% to 37–60%. But 2022–23 resolved higher and 2025–26 resolved lower, every single time.
A calm episode is a stretch of consecutive days with 30-day vol below the August 13, 2026 level; returns are measured from the close of the last day. SOL doesn’t have a single one. The full list:
The table reports: era 2022–23, btc at +90 days +39.9%, eth at +90 days +26.3%; era 2025–26, btc at +90 days −13.0%, eth at +90 days in progress.
btc · 4 episodes — episode 12–16 Aug 2023 · all-time low, +30 d −7.4%, +60 d −5.5%, +90 d +23.7%; episode 30 Sep 2023, +30 d +27.9%, +60 d +40.4%, +90 d +56.0%; episode 9–10 Aug 2025, +30 d −6.5%, +60 d +2.0%, +90 d −14.2%; episode 12 Aug 2025, +30 d −3.9%, +60 d −7.9%, +90 d −11.8%. eth · 8 episodes — episode 22 Oct 2022, +30 d −15.7%, +60 d −7.6%, +90 d +26.3%; episode 4–5 Jun 2023, +30 d +5.5%, +60 d +1.1%, +90 d −9.6%; episode 5–28 Aug 2023 · all-time low, +30 d −3.3%, +60 d +7.6%, +90 d +24.8%; episode 16–20 Sep 2023, +30 d −1.1%, +60 d +24.0%, +90 d +34.3%; episode 22 Sep – 3 Oct 2023, +30 d +8.7%, +60 d +30.7%, +90 d +42.0%; episode 12–15 Oct 2023, +30 d +27.1%, +60 d +48.6%, +90 d +65.5%; episode 8 Nov 2023, +30 d +24.9%, +60 d +17.7%, +90 d +25.7%; episode 20 May – 1 Jun 2026 · in progress, +30 d −19.8%, +60 d −7.2%, +90 d —.
Why is Solana a case of its own?
In the 2023 hibernation, when BTC sank to 17%, SOL never dropped below 40%. For an asset whose historical median is 92%, trading at 31% means two-thirds of its character has gone missing. And it is in the setup that, across its few precedents, has always ended badly. After a compressed run of 2+ weeks, SOL was lower four weeks later in 3 cases out of 3.
The table reports: figure 0, days in its history calmer than today; figure 0.0 · 0.0, historical percentile, 30- and 50-day windows; figure 5 weeks, compressed run in progress, the longest ever; figure −66%, distance from its historical median, 31.3% against 92.1%.